DTH TV: A pie in the sky?

Why DTH television may not take off with the conventional business plan. Only a whole new approach will ensure success

This article was published, in edited form, in the September 2005 issue of the Karachi-based "Spider," (www.spider.tm) the leading Internet magazine of the country.

The Government issued recently licenses for satellite-based Direct-to-Home (DTH) television service to two private companies and the Pakistan Television. None of them may be able to get its service off the ground. Deep pockets will not ensure success. A large market share at present may not be much of an advantage. Aggressive marketing will only make matters worse for all. However, there is a way out, a viable solution that will create a level playing field for all.
DTH will be a better alternative for the unhappy customers of cable networks. Even the largest cable operators do not always provide satisfactory service. The channels may not have uniform sound and picture quality. The sequence of channels may be altered arbitrarily. Some channels may go off for days or even weeks, leaving (literally) black holes. The choice of channels is not wide if you have no liking for pirated films and puerile con-tent. There are disruptions due to power as well as network failures. Then there is the devil called “loop-holder,” the link between the cable operator and its customers, a sort of local dealer. He may feed into the system what-ever he fancies, from pirated films to local ads, even blue films late at night, if he can get away with it. He may run commercials that are some times as long as half an hour.
DTH can eliminate the problems that cable networks face. It will make the location of the user irrelevant, cutting the umbilical cord, so to speak, of the cable system. You will get the same service whether in a posh urban locality or a village in a remote area. All channels will be digital, giv-ing high broadcast quality. The choice of channels will be extremely wide. Internet will be a great attraction as it can provided as a part of the package. (Cable operators offer Internet as a separate connection.)
DTH will be a distinct improvement over present cable television but may not necessarily be a completely satisfactory alternative on its own. The receiving equipment, consisting of a small dish and a receiver, will require a substantial initial investment for the customer. The cable operators often waive the connection charges.
A DTH operator will have to add a set-top box to the receiver to create different categories of service if many customers want more than the free-to-air package. He can then offer not only paid channels to those who ask for them but also pay-per-view channels to those who want first-run films and live coverage of sports. The set-top box will mean additional cost for the customers or an increase in the monthly payment if it is on lease.
The three DTH services will find it difficult to meet a major requirement of their licenses. Every one is required to provide at least 50 channels in the beginning and increase the number to 300 within three years. That many satellite television channels may not be available over our horizon, at least for the time being, after excluding the undesirable ones. Even if they do become available in the near future, every DTH service cannot offer all of them exclusively. (It will be a logical impossibility.) And if all of them are going to have more or less the same channels, why have three services in the first place?
Three players in the field will make life difficult for the customer also. Everyone will provide its own receiving equipment. If a customer is not happy with one operator, it will be difficult to switch to another service as it will involve payment for new equipment on the one hand while, on the other hand, the present equipment will become useless. The double whammy will prohibit switch-over, putting the unhappy customer in a bind. (The mobile phone users, by contrast, can change the company any time. Next year, they will be able even to retain their phone numbers when they go to another service provider.)
The payment of monthly subscription will be difficult both for the operator and the customer. The use of prepaid cards, like those of mobile phone companies, will require an expensive dealer network all over of the country. Credit cards are increasing in popularity but most customers will not have them for quite some time. By contrast, the cable operators can afford to make door to door collection because their customers are concentrated in small areas.)
It may not even come to collecting subscriptions at all, even if the operator can manage it. To offer the ultimate in piracy, better than even the illegal DVDs, satellite receivers are available in the market that can decode any encryption that the paid channel may have. With two 8-ft dishes, you can get 300-400 channels free of any monthly payment. The cost of the package comes to about Rs 10,000. With an option like that, who will be willing to pay the DTH service several hundred rupees month after month? The feasibility and the business plan may turn into just a sheaf of papers.
Is it possible to overcome this devastating handicap? Yes. Facing the same problem, Doordarshan, the state-owned Indian television, neither sells receiving equipment, nor collects any payments from its DTH customers. That is simplicity itself. The equipment is supplied by dealers of manufacturers. The cost of the system (a receiver and a dish of less than 50cms) is less than Indian Rs 3000, depending on the brand and model. The customer buys the equipment, the dealer installs it on the roof or even a window sill and that’s all. All channels are free.
But then the problem of choice starts. Doordarshan provides 19 channels of its own and a dozen audio channels of state-owned All India Radio. There are only 14 private television channels, all Indian, except BBC World. If a customer does not find much attraction in the state-owned television and radio channels, he will not have much choice.
A free DTH service on the lines of Doordarshan can survive only if it provides virtually unlimited choice of channels. Is it possible? It certainly is but will require thinking out of the box, treading a virgin path off the beaten track.
Look at an example first that will help in understanding the concept. The Civil Aviation Authority builds an airport, provides all required services and maintains all its facilities. Then it opens it to all airlines for their flights. Every airline pays for the airport services according to its number of flights. (The bus stands in cities operate on similar lines, providing common services at a single place to all transporters.)
DTH needs a similar level playing field. The three DTH licensees should abandon their plans to go it alone because they will be only burning their money into smoke. (According to Frost & Sullivan, a respected research organization, no service provider in the Asia Pacific DTH markets has yet attained profitability, despite continued subscriber growth.) Instead, they should join all other licensees of television channels, private as well as public, to form a cooperative, to be called “National DTH Service.” It will provide a common platform, not only giving equal access to all of them but also the maximum possible number of channels (up to 500, possibly even 1000). The cooperative will set up and run the DTH service, with all members sharing the expenses equally.
The members of the cooperative will soon increase far beyond the present about dozen or so satellite channels. Many more are already in the pipeline. Virtual University and Allama Iqbal Open University may have more channels to increase the number of their courses. So may major public sector universities, with a grant from Higher Education Commission to promote distance education. Their students will find it easier and cheaper to study for their degrees through television. (Broadband for Internet is not available to most students even in cities while DTH will reach the remotest places.)
The federal and provincial governments may lease channels to broadcast all their official events live, including the proceedings of Parliament and Provincial Assemblies. They may devote some channels to the Local Gov-ernments also to promote development activities. Ministries, such as those for travel, culture, health, foreign affairs, may like to have their own promotional channels. The sports organizations, especially for cricket, hockey and football, may have their own channels to keep the entire advertising revenue and also broadcast live many more matches.
The lower cost of joining the DTH bouquet will open the door for many more new channels, both public and private. It will be cheaper and much more convenient to provide a terrestrial link (such as optic fiber) to the DTH station than to lease a satellite transponder and use its uplinking facilities. It will be a good bargain for the channels that want to target only the audience in the country and the neighborhood. Every new member will mean reduction in the share of every present member in the expenses of the cooperative.
That will not be all. There are many free-to-air channels already beaming to our area. These are mostly state-owned and will be happy to join to get their message to a much larger audience.
The foreign paid channels will also pay to join the DTH bouquet. The logic is obvious. If the domestic channels will pay to join the cooperative to offer more viewers to their advertisers, there is no reason why the foreign channels should not do the same. The cable operators charge subscription and hence pay the foreign channels. DTH channels will not charge the customers anything and will, thus, pay them nothing. If some foreign paid channels are unwilling, PEMRA may ban their present operations in the country, depriving them of all subscription and advertisement revenue that they get through the cable networks.
In addition to membership dues, the DTH service may get substantial revenue from an unusual source. Every one will be keen to have as high a position as possible in the sequence of channels. The positions may be auctioned, with the channel paying the highest amount will be accessible by pressing just 1 on the remote control, the second by pressing 2, and so on. Some channels may like to have, through the auction process, favorite positions such as 22 or 222 that are easier to dial. A similar plan already gets millions of rupees for the Punjab Excise and Registration Department through the auction of registration numbers for cars in every new series. Besides lower digits, there are other favorites such as 786 (the numerical value of the letters in Bismillah.) Gauhar Ayub Khan, a former National Assembly Speaker, is said to have pulled strings to get GAK1 for his car in the K series of Gujranwala (GA) district.
The proposed DTH service will solve the censor problem. Some foreign channels broadcast content that is objectionable for us. PEMRA has been so far unable to enforce its code, especially in case of small cable operators. In case of DTH bouquet, PEMRA will allow only those channels that are not against our religious, moral and cultural values. That will be an effective defense against foreign cultural invasion. In addition, it may require installation of equipment that delays the broadcast signal for, say 5-15 seconds, so that scenes with sex, violence and other objectionable content may be easily censored in the approved foreign channels.
With hundreds of channels, no monthly subscription and receiving equipment costing no more than an ordinary mobile phone, the DTH service will attract millions of customers. It may even dry up the market for cable networks, which cannot survive without charging monthly subscription. And we shall have a national DTH service that will be a model for other countries.

CELEBRATION: How to celebrate 60th anniversary of Independence in 2007

We shall be completing 60 years of our independence in 2007. This will be an appropriate occasion to look back as well as to look ahead.
The celebrations should start on January 1 and continue until August 14, 2007. The planning and preparations will take time and, therefore, should start right now.
The plan proposes activities for the Government, the educational institutions and the media. Their initiatives will stimulate thinking among others and they will make their own plans. There is no limit to what can be done in various spheres. To give just a few examples,
a) The political parties may hold public meetings.
b) The chambers of commerce and industry, trade associations and trade unions may hold seminars and other functions.
c) (Boy) Scouts and (Girl) Guides may hold rallies.
d) Sports or­ganizations may arrange matches and tournaments.
e) Non-government organizations may arrange seminars and discussions to review developments in their own fields and plans for the future.
The primary purpose of this plan is to stimulate thinking and encourage planning in all fields and at all levels. It cannot cover all possibilities for all. Therefore, it concentrates on institutions that can involve participation by maximum number of people. The others may select points and topics and prepare their own plans.

Muhammad Abd al-Hameed


Educational institutions
The educational institutions – schools, colleges, universities – may concentrate their attention on the students, the parents and the teachers. The following activities are suggested for educational institutions:

Hoardings and boards
Hoardings and boards may be displayed at prominent places within the premises of educational institutions. The design for the hoardings and boards should be as follows:
The national flag should be on the right and these words in Urdu should be on the left: 2007 – Azadi ka 60-wan sal. Below it, these words should be on the entire length: Aaen, Pakistan ko misali mulk banaen.
The students will be looking at hoardings and boards several times dur­ing the day and will be inspired to work for a better Pakistan.
The commercial concerns may donate hoardings and their installation if an institution does not have necessary funds.

Special badge
A special badge may be de­signed. It may be round in shape, with 60 in white on a green back­ground (similar to that of the national flag).
All students may wear the badge during the entire celebration period.

Speech contests
The speech contests may be held at several levels. At the first level, there may be a contest for every class. Three top winners may then go for a contest at the institutional level.
The top three winners may go for a contest at the district level in case of schools and at the provincial level in case of colleges and universities.
The prizes should be in the form of best books on the struggle for inde­pendence so that the winners get a still better understanding of the genesis of Pakistan. The prizes should not be of large sums so that there is no manipu­la­tion for winning.
The active participants in the freedom movement may be given places of honour at the contest venues.
The idea behind the speech con­tests is to have maximum occasions for participation so that wide­spread awareness is created about independence and its demands.

Essay contests
The essay contests may also be at several levels. At the first level, there may be a con­test for every class. Three top winners may then go for a contest at the institutional level.
The top three winners may go for a contest at the district level in case of schools and at the provincial level in case of colleges and universities.
The prizes should be in the form of best books on the struggle for inde­pendence so that the winners get a still better understanding of the genesis of Pakistan. The prizes should not be of large sums so that there is no manipula­tion for winning.
Every institution may bring out a special issue of its magazine to publish all prize-winning essays of all classes. (If no magazine is brought out regularly, a one-time booklet may be published.) A copy of the magazine may be given to every stu­dent of the institution as a memento.

Poetry contests
Since good poets are not many, the initial contest may be only at the insti­tutional level. The top three winners may go for a contest at the district level in case of schools and at the provincial level in case of colleges and universities.
The prizes should be in the form of best books on the struggle for inde­pendence so that the winners get a still better understanding of the genesis of Pakistan. The prizes should not be of high value so that there is no manipu­la­tion for winning.
The special issue of the institu­tion’s magazine, that will publish all prize-winning essays of all classes, may also include the prize winning poems.

Literacy campaign
The students, both male and fe­male, may be encouraged to organize literacy classes for adults in their areas. Dur­ing the lessons, they may encourage dis­cussion on the Independence movement and their hopes for the future. The students may be given certifi­cates by their institutions in recognition of their services, after verification of their efforts.

Condensed history courses
The teachers and senior students may organize condensed courses on the freedom movement and the history of the past 60 years for junior students and other interested persons. The premises of the educational institutions may be used for the purpose. Certificates may be is­sued to participants.

Plays and tableaus
Wherever necessary talent is available, schools and colleges may stage plays and tableaus on various aspects of independence. All participants should be given certificates and books in recognition of their participation.

Film and television shows
Many good feature films and television plays are available on video. Educational institutions may bor­row VCRs or DVD players with television sets to hold special shows.
Just as they purchase books for their libraries, the educational institutions may buy VCD/DVD copies of films and televi­sion plays

Sports tournaments
The educational institutions may organize sports matches and tourna­ments for various games and sports at local (city or district) and higher (division or prov­ince) levels.

List of topics
The list of topics given below in the sec­tion, “The Media,” below may be used for vari­ous contests.


The Government
The ministries, departments, autonomous and semi-autonomous corporations and other organizations of the fed­eral and provincial governments and the Local Governments have the resources and the infrastructure to play a ma­jor role in celebrations . The following activities are suggested for them:

Special monogram and badges
A special rectangular monogram may be prepared with this design:
The national flag should be on the right and these words in Urdu should be on the left: Azadi ka 60-wan sal. Below it, these words should be on the entire length: Aaen, Pakistan ko misali mulk banaen.
This monogram may be used on letterheads, envelopes, file covers and all other official stationery. It may use the original colours of the flag unless econ­omy is desired in case of letterheads and envelopes.
The monogram may also be in­cluded in the right-hand top corner of all official press advertisements.
A special badge may also be de­signed. It may be round in shape, with 60 in white on a green back­ground (similar to that of the national flag).
The special badge may be worn by all government employees who wear uniform while on duty.
On Ramazan 27, special shukrana prayers may be organized throughout the country.

Hoardings and boards
All buildings and offices of the federal and provincial governments, autonomous and semi-autonomous cor­porations and organizations, Local Governments and other institutions may display promi­nently, outside as well as inside their premises, the hoardings and boards bearing the special mono­gram.

Railway
All railway stations may promi­nently display the hoardings and boards with the special monogram outside as well as inside the premises.
All vacant (not carrying any ad­vertisement) poster boards on the plat­forms and elsewhere at the railway sta­tions may be used to display posters with the special monogram (or with designs on the theme of Independence).
All passenger train carriages may carry the special monogram near the top on the outside, besides the railway’s own name.
Sing boards with the special mono­gram (or with designs on the theme of Independence) may be displayed above the windows of all railway booking (ticket) offices, where literally millions of people will see them daily.
Similar boards may also be dis­played inside all waiting rooms of railway stations. The Railway may require all advertisers dis­playing hoardings and boards in the premises of the railway stations to install new hoardings and boards with the spe­cial monogram or on the theme of Inde­pendence. The number of such hoardings may be equal to 20% of the total hoard­ings of an advertiser.
All railway employees who wear uni­form while on duty may wear the special badge.

Civil Aviation Authority
The Civil Aviation Authority may require all ad­vertisers displaying hoardings and boards in the premises of its airports to install new hoardings and boards with the spe­cial monogram (or with designs on the theme of Independence). The number of such hoardings may be equal to 20% of the total hoard­ings of an advertiser.
Sign boards with the special mono­gram (or with designs on the theme of Independence) may be displayed above all airport check-in counters, where thou­sands of people will see them daily.
Similar boards may also be dis­played inside all passenger lounges.
All civil aviation employees who wear uniform while on duty may wear the special badge.

PIA
PIA may display boards with the special monogram (or with designs on the theme of Independence) in all of­fices, in­cluding those in other countries.
It may produce special brochures in major world languages for dis­tribution through its offices abroad.
It may show in its international flights the film documentaries produced by the federal Information Ministry, in English and other major lan­guages.
All PIA employees who wear uniform while on duty may wear the special badge.

National Highway Authority
The National Highway Authority may require all ad­vertisers displaying hoardings on the na­tional highways to install new hoardings with the special monogram (or with de­signs on the theme of Independence). The number of such hoardings may be equal to 20% of the total hoardings of an advertiser.

Local Governments
The Local Governments may require all advertisers displaying hoardings on the roads within their jurisdictions to install new hoard­ings with the special monogram (or with designs on the theme of Independence). The number of such hoardings may be equal to 20% of the total hoardings of an advertiser.
Sign boards with the special mono­gram (or with designs on the theme of Independence) may be displayed in all offices and institutions.
The District Governments may, where relevant, build suitable memorials at all places where refugee camps were set up in 1947.
All tiers of Local Governments may or­ganize sports tournaments. All popular sports and games may be included.

Pakistan Post Office
The Pakistan Post Office may print the special monogram on all envelopes, post cards and other stationery issued during the celebration period. The cancellation and delivery stamps may also have this monogram.
Special postage stamps with the special monogram and with designs on the theme of Independence may be issued for the most common denominations.
All postal employees, who wear uni­form while on duty, will wear the special badge.

WAPDA
The special monogram may be printed prominently on the monthly electricity bills issued to consum­ers.

Pakistan Telecom. Corp.
The special monogram may be printed prominently on the monthly tele­phone bills.

Sui Gas companies
The special monogram may be printed prominently on the gas bills is­sued by Sui Northern and Sui Southern.

Banks
The banks may display boards with the special monogram (or with de­signs on the theme of Independence) in all branches and offices, including those in other countries.
All cheque books issued during the celebration period may bear the spe­cial monogram in background on every cheque.
All bank employees who wear uniform while on duty may wear the special badge.

Cinemas
All cinemas may be asked to show slides with the special monogram invariably before the start of a show and be­fore its resumption after the interval. These slides may be supplied by the In­formation Departments of the provincial governments to ensure uniformity of de­sign.
Boards with the special mono­gram (or with designs on the theme of Independence) may be displayed above the windows of all cinema booking (ticket) offices, where the people will see them daily.
During the celebration period, the cinemas may show daily at least one documentary film produced by the In­formation Department of the provincial government or the federal Information Ministry.

Information Ministry and In­formation Departments
Books. A series of books may be published, reviewing the developments during the past 60 years. In view of the huge material to be covered, one book may cover only one major theme, such as politics, economy, social services, communications, etc.
A chronology of all major events, with relevant pictures and illustrations, may also be published in book form.
The Information Ministry may produce these books at the national level while the Information Depart­ments may do it at the provincial level.
Every District Government may also produce these books relating to the developments in its district since Independence.
The books, in Urdu and English, may be published as and when manu­scripts are ready. The series may be completed before August 1997.
All books, produced by the federal, provincial and local government, may be made available later on CDs for wide distribution at a low cost.
Films. Special documentary films may be produced to cover developments in various sectors during the 60 years. A documentary may cover one major theme. The films may be shown in cine­mas and on televi­sion throughout the celebration period.
The Information Ministry may produce the documentaries at the national level while the Information Departments may do it at the provincial level.
Pakistan Television may also pro­duce documenta­ries on its own and also allow private companies to make them available on VCDs/DVDs.
Audio. Radio Pakistan, besides broadcasting special programmes, may compile material in its archives into CDs on various themes and subjects. The disks may be made available through private companies.

Diplomatic missions abroad
The achievements during the first 60 years may be highlighted during func­tions on national days at our diplomatic mis­sions abroad.
The national newspapers and magazines in respective countries may be persuaded to publish special articles (also supple­ments, if pos­sible) on our achieve­ments during the first 60 years.
The books, audio and video disks and film documentaries produced by the fed­eral Information Ministry, in English and other languages, may also be supplied to diplomatic missions abroad for dis­tribution, es­pecially among televi­sion and ra­dio networks and libraries in their areas of jurisdiction.
Pakistan Friendship Associations, existing in most countries, may be en­couraged to hold (a) essay competitions for students, (b) functions and meetings with local VIPs as speakers, and (c) video and film shows.


Media
The newspapers and magazines may spread the celebration over the entire year, in fact more than a year, instead of confining it to just one day.
The following plan is primarily for newspapers and magazines though radio, televi­sion and others can also use it as a guideline.
The celebrations may be divided into three phases, each marked by a spe­cial issue of newspapers and maga­zines.
a) In January 2007, a special issue may cover the struggle for Independence.
b) In March 2007, the achievements and failures of the previous 60 years may be reviewed.
c) In August 2007, the expectations for the next 40 years (up to the centenary in 2047) may be projected.
Thus, we will be able to recall our past, review the present and express our hopes for the future.

All contributions that the newspaper and magazines will receive can not be ac­commodated in only three special issues, nor can all writers observe the deadlines. Therefore, the material about all three phases may be spread over the entire pe­riod from January to August 2007. These overflowing articles, pub­lished in every weekly magazine section of dailies and every issue of weeklies and month­lies, will en­courage other forms of celebra­tion, be­sides being constant reminders to the readers.
Soon after August 2007, every newspaper and magazine may compile all articles published in its special and other issues into book form and publish for coming generations. It may also make them available on their web sites as well as CDs.
To identify the articles relating to the celebration in its ordinary issues, every publication may use a special monogram with them in the right or left top corner, showing the national flag on the right and these words on the left: “60-wan saal” or “60th Year.”


The struggle for Independence
The following topics are suggested for articles to be published in the special issue of newspapers and magazines in January 2007 and in subsequent issues. Special emphasis may be given to the hostile attitude of the British and the Hindus towards the Muslims only because of their religion.

The genesis
How and why the demand arose for a new country for the Muslims
The two-nation theory, its implications
The suppression of Muslims by the British, Hindus and Sikhs
The social status of Muslims in areas that later formed Pakistan
The expectations of the Muslim masses about life after Independence

The mass movement
The role of Muslim League in the struggle for freedom
The role of other political parties of Muslims
How Jinnah rose to become the Quaid-i-Azam
Why Quaid-i-Azam had a parting of ways with the Congress
How Allama Iqbal inspired the Muslims
The contribution in the struggle for Independence of
a) students,
b) journalists,
c) poets,
d) lawyers,
e) rich and the landlords,
f) business community,
g) ulema, and
h) women.
The role of leading educational institutions and associations
The role of Muslims of mi­nority provinces in the freedom struggle
Why the Muslims demanded a separate electorate for elections

The opposition
Why the British and the Hindus opposed the demand for Pakistan
The obstinacy of the Hindus in rejecting every compromise offer
Why the Sikhs decided not to go with the Muslims
How Lord Mountbatten favoured the Hindus
The Radcliffe award and its con­sequences for Pakistan

The migration
The long journey to a new home through death and destruction
The role of the railway in the evacuation of refugees
How the army helped in rescuing the refugees
The role of the police in the evacuation of refugees
The problems of resettling the refugees


The first 60 years
The following topics are suggested to cover both achievements and failures in various fields since 1947. The articles should give a balanced view.

Constitutional matters
The trials and tribulations of framing the first constitution
The comparison of 1956 Constitution with Govt of In­dia Act, 1935
Why and how the 1956 Constitution was abrogated
How upholding of abrogation affected our subsequent history
The reasons for adopting presi­dential system under 1962 Constitution
Why 1973 Constitution was so different from the interim one of 1972
The impact of the Eighth amend­ment on subsequent political history
How successive governments have been violating the constitutional

Islamization
The Islamic provisions in various constitutions
The Islamization measures during the Zia regime
The efforts for the elimination of riba
The impact of provisions regard­ing zakat, ushr and Bait al-Mal
The influence of Islam on the electronic and print media
The efforts to set up a welfare state in accordance with Islam.

Martial laws
How the constitutional crises led to imposition of martial laws.
Major events under the martial law regimes of
a) Azam Khan (in Lahore in 1953)
b) Ayub Khan
c) Yahya Khan
d) Z. A. Bhutto
e) Zia ul Haq
The relationship between the army and various civil governments
The relationship between the opposition and martial law re­gimes
The judgments of superior courts on the imposi­tion of martial laws

Government
The duration in office of heads of state and government:
a) Governors Generals
b) Presidents
c) Prime Ministers
d) In­terim Prime Ministers
e) Chief Martial Law Ad­ministrators
The duration in office of minis­ters in all federal cabi­nets since 1947
The duration in office in all provinces of
a) Gov­ernors
b) Chief Ministers
c) Interim Chief Ministers
d) Martial Law Administrators (incl. East Pakistan until 1971)
The duration in office of all minis­ters in all provinces since 1947

Political affairs
Results of all federal and provincial elections since 1947
Why the parliamentary system has not been working properly
How defections have made the elected governments instable
Why the legislators are keen to influence and control the executive.
How the Local Governments have transformed the society
The changing role of landlords and businessmen in politics
Why political parties do not have democratic internal procedures
Why political parties have not been able to create grassroots appeal
Why some parties talk of nation­alities rather than only the nation
The treatment of minorities and their role in government and society

Wars and peace
The capability of defence forces in 1947
The struggle for the liberation of Kashmir since 1947
The Battle for the Rann of Kutch.
Why and how Operation Gibral­tar was undertaken
First India-Pakistan War, 1965
The impact of the first war on our society
Second India-Pakistan War, 971
Why and how East Pakistan be­came Bangladesh
The consequences of the separa­tion of East Pakistan
The defence strategies and plans at various stages
How we got the nuclear bomb
The implications of Kargil for the Kashmir issue
The peace process under President Musharraf
The final solution of the Kashmir issue

Administration
Why the corruption has been growing among the public servants
How the lack of security of service affects the public servants
Why judiciary could not be sepa­rated from executive for so long
The consequences of quotas in government jobs, particularly in Sindh
How the use of English affects the efficiency of bureaucrats

Law and order
The changes in the pattern of crime over the years
The influence of narcotics and illegal arms on crime
The politicization of crime and its consequences for the society
The consequences of inadequate resources for police and courts

Media
The developments over the decades relating to
a) print media
b) radio
c) television
d) film, and
e) other media
The impact of foreign video, audio and satellite television
The transformation and growth of Urdu as the national language
The publication of Urdu Ency­clopedia of Islam and Urdu Dictionary
The promotion of literature by public and private institutions

Education
Why illiteracy and lack of universal elementary education continue
The evolution and growth of
a) elementary,
b) secondary and
c) university education
The impact of Bhutto’s nationali­zation on education
The consequences of English lan­guage continuing as
a) the medium of instruction in upper class institutions,
b) a compulsory subject at various levels of education, and
c) the official language
The commercial and philan­thropic role of private sector in education

Science and technology
The development of nuclear technology and the bomb
The first Noble prize for Pakistan
The research relating to space, rock­ets and satellites
The indigenization and development of defence equipment
The technical and scientific re­search in public and private institutions
The impact of computers, Internet and mobile phones on society

Health
The expansion of health services since Independence
The hospitals and health services provided by philanthropists
The philanthropic services of Imran Khan, Sattar Eidhi and others
The achievements of top experts in medicine and surgery

Infrastructure
The building of highways and motorways
The impact of the railway on business and the society
The growth of PIA and the new domestic airlines
The growth in generation of hy­del, thermal and nuclear electricity
The impact of major dams, like Warsak, Mangla and Tarbela
How the construction of Kala­bagh Dam was delayed
The provision of electricity in vil­lages and its impact on rural society
The contribution of the expanding network of farm-to-market roads

Business and industry
The growth in light and heavy in­dustries
Foreign private investment in industry and services
The industrial growth during the Ayub Khan period
The consequences of nationaliza­tion of industries by Bhutto
The liberalization of industry and business in recent years
The impact the IMF and World Bank on our economy

Agriculture
The land reforms under Ayub Khan and Bhutto and their abolition
How the pattern of agriculture has been changing over the decades
How the increase in per hectare yield came about for major crops
The growing mechanization of farming and its impact
The introduction of chemical fertilizers and their impact
The consequences of introducing Mexi-Pak wheat and IRRI rice

Economy
How the share of agriculture is decreasing in the economy
The emergence and growth of black or parallel economy
The expansion of domestic debt and its impact
The consequences of deficits in the federal and provincial budgets

Foreign trade
The pattern of exports and im­ports and present trends
The reasons for previous stagnation and present expansion in exports
The main trading partners and the evolution of their relationship
Why IMF has been willingly financing deficit in balance of payments
The impact of liberalization of im­ports
The growth of smuggling under po­litical and bureaucratic patron­age

Foreign aid
How the foreign loans increased over the years
How foreign loans gradually replaced grants
The impact of US PL-480 assistance on our agriculture and econ­omy
The consequences of borrowings from IMF and the World Bank

International relations
The Kashmir issue and its handling by successive governments
The liberation movement in Kashmir
The attitude of various govern­ments towards the Khalistan Movement
The role of the people and vari­ous governments in the Afghan jihad
The impact of Baghdad Pact, CENTO and SEATO on foreign policy
Pakistan’s role in peacekeeping and other UN operations
The history of relations under various gov­ernments with
a) U.S.
b) China
c) India
d) USSR (now Russia), and
e) major Muslim countries


Towards the centenary in 2047
The following topics are suggested to project plans, estimates and expectations for the next 40 years, until the 100th Independence anniversary in 2047. The objective should be to explore the potential in various fields as well as express the hopes and desires of the people.

Aspirations
What should be our national objec­tives and aspirations for future
How our daily life can be entirely in accordance with Islam
How the mosques can regain their role in our social life
What kind of future the children of today may expect to have
How our cultural heritage can be preserved and promoted

Economic power
How we can also be­come a “tiger” like some Asian countries
How the budgets can be improved to be always in surplus
How we can repay all domestic and foreign loans

Standard of living
How our cities can have all modern public services
How our villages can meet their basic needs
How we can ensure a reasonable standard of living for all

Knowledge
How we can have universal liter­acy
How we can provide higher sec­ondary education to every student
How modern technologies can be used for promotion of education
How information technology can transform our society
How research can be promoted in various fields


The earlier version of this plan was prepared and widely distributed in 1995 for the celebration of 50 years of Independence in 1997. This is a revised version for 2007.

April 25, 2005

PENSION: A self-financing pension plan for everybody

The Universal Pension Plan will provide a pension to every adult on a self-financing basis. Its objectives will be to
a) provide pension to every public servant at a much higher rate than at present, while absolving the Government of financing it,
b) provide a pension for every private sector employee without any burden on the employers;
c) allow every self-employed person to have a pension for himself.

Who will manage it?
The Government will create an autonomous organization, National Pension Fund, with the following as members of the Board of Directors in view of their relevance to the plan:
a) Federal Finance Secretary (Supervision of deductions from salaries of public servants for the Pension Fund),
b) Auditor General (Audit of the Pension Fund operations),
c) Accountant Generals of all provinces (Audit of deductions from salaries of public servants of their provinces),
d) Governor, State Bank (Purchase of all bonds by Pension Fund),
e) Chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission (Supervision of deductions from public and private limited companies)
f) President of the National Bank of Pakistan (Supervision of payment of pensions through the bank’s network of branches)

How will it start?
National Pension Fund will create a pension account for every adult citizen when NADRA issues his national identity card. NADRA will communicate the information given in the identity card to the Fund for identification and record. For convenience in reference, the Fund will give a pension account the same number as that of the national identity card of the account-holder. NADRA will also communicate subsequent changes in the data of national identity cards.

Who will contribute and how much?
The Federal Governments, the Provincial Governments, the Local Governments, all autonomous bodies and corporations and other units in the public sector will deduct every month 10% or more of the gross salary (basic pay, all allowances, all benefits) of every employee and deposit it in his pension account with the National Pension Fund through the National Bank. Simultaneously, the employer will deposit in an employee’s pension account an amount equivalent to the deduction from his gross salary.
Every public and private limited company and every employer with more than 10 employees will also deduct every month 10% or more of the gross salary (basic pay, all allowances, all benefits) of every employee and deposit it in his pension account with the National Pension Fund. Simultaneously, the employer will deposit in an employee’s pension account an amount equivalent to the deduction from his gross salary.
The monthly deductions will continue to be made in case of all employees as long as they are in service, whether permanent, temporary or on contract. If an employee leaves for any reason and starts working with another employer, he will give his National Pension Fund account number to the new employer and the monthly deductions will start again.
At his discretion, an employee may also make additional contributions to his pension account from his savings to enhance the amount of pension that he will get on retirement. The employers may also deposit bonuses in the pension accounts of the employees instead of paying them in cash.
The Government will abolish Employees Old Age Benefit scheme and Social Security as the Universal Pension Plan will provide better benefits.
Common Fund. When a pensioner dies and there are no more any dependents, the balance in his pension account will go to a Common Fund of the National Pension Fund. The return on this amount will increase revenue and allow higher pension rates for all. The higher rates will be in inverse proportion, with lower pensions getting higher increases.

Where will the National Pension Fund invest the contributions?
A law will be passed to require every public and private limited company to issue bonds equal to 10% or more of its paid up capital to the National Pension Fund. (The companies will issue the bonds as and when the Pension Fund places a demand.) The interest on the bonds will 10% or more.
The bonds will have no maturity dates and the issuers will continue to pay interest on them. If a company winds up its business for any reason or goes bankrupt, the Fund will have the first lien on its assets and recover the full value of the bonds and the due interest.
Every employer with 10 or more employees will also have to issue bonds to the National Pension Fund equal to the 10% or more of the value of its total assets, at a rate of 10% or more.
The issue of bonds by a company or firm will not be a burden. It will pay interest out of its profits before declaring a dividend. The company will save a huge amount by not paying pensions to its employees. It will also not have to pay anything for Social Security and Employees Old Age Benefit scheme because both will be abolished as being redundant. On the other hand, the company will be using the money from bonds for its business. If it makes a profit of over 10% on the bond amount, it will have a net gain.

Investment only in bonds. As the Pension Fund collects deductions, it will invest the amount in the bonds of companies and other employers. It will also reinvest immediately the amount of interest that it will be getting.
If the National Pension Fund ever reaches the maximum limit for bonds that it can buy from all public and private limited companies and employers with 10 or more employees, it will use the surplus funds to buy bonds from the federal and provincial governments at 10%, with interest paid every quarter. There will be no maturity date for the government bonds, nor any limit on their issue.
The National Pension Fund will not make any investment except in bonds. Under no circumstances will it enter the stock market because that involves risk and speculation. We have seen how the slumps in the stock markets destroyed the pension funds even in countries like the U.S. Therefore, the National Pension Fund will not take any risk of any type, however tempting the offers may be. We cannot afford to betray the trust of the entire adult population of the country under any circumstances.

What will be the rate of pension?
The actual pension rate will depend on the balance of a pension account-holder on the day the pension is to start. With a guaranteed return of 10% per annum on bonds and the reinvestment of all interest payments, the National Pension Fund will get a total return at a compound interest rate of 10%. That may get a monthly pension of about Rs 2500 on a deduction of Rs 100 per month (matched equally by the employer) for 40 years, or 25 times. The amount will rise to Rs 25,000 on deduction of Rs 1000 per month. That will be quite substantial in any case.
A pensioner may further increase his pension if he increases his monthly deduction to more than 10% of gross salary. He may also deposit his savings in his pension account, as he will get a higher return (10% compound interest) than even on national savings schemes.

What will be the types of pensions and other payments?
A pension will start normally at retirement age. The Government and other employers may increase the present retirement age to 65 years to utilize for five more years the knowledge and experience of their employees because it will not mean any financial burden with regard to pension. An employee may also prefer to continue if he likes his job and is physically fit. On taking retirement at 65, the rate of pension will also go up substantially.
Self-employed. A self-employed person may retire at the official retirement age or any later or earlier date. If he decides to retire earlier, he will start getting a pension based on his account balance at the time.
Unemployment allowance. If a person loses his job for any reason, he may get unemployment allowance at 10% of the balance of his pension account. This payment may stop when he gets another job and his new employer resumes deductions from his gross salary. This unemployment allowance will provide a safety net without being a burden on the Government or the private sector employers.
Loan. An employee may borrow money from his pension account to meet serious emergencies but not more than 10% of the balance at a time. He will have to pay 10% interest on his borrowing. If he does not repay within 60 months, the due amount (including interest) will be debited from his account. It will reduce his balance and ultimately affect his pension.
Successors. On the death of a pensioner, his spouse will get the same amount of pension for life. After the death of the spouse, the pension will be equally divided among the dependant sons and daughters of the pensioner that are under 21 years. After that, the entire balance of the pensioner’s account will go to the Common Fund of the National Pension Fund for the ultimate benefit of all pensioners.
Group life insurance. The National Pension Fund will itself provide group life insurance to all of its account-holders. In case of death or permanent disability before reaching retirement age, the group life insurance will allow payment of full pension with immediate effect. The rate of pension will be the same as it would have been on due retirement age if the deductions of the employee and his employer had continued at the present rate.
If the National Pension Fund charges just one rupee per month per person for group insurance, it will collect tens of millions of rupees every month from its account-holders. The insurance will also be far more convenient to manage and cheaper than by involving an insurance company.
No health insurance. However, the Fund will not provide health insurance as it will lead to colossal frauds. Instead, the Government should build hospitals at all Tehsil headquarters for free treatment of pensioners.

How the Fund will pay pensions?
When the pension is due to start, the Fund will ask the account-holder to open an account with any convenient branch of the National Bank. Then it will transfer the money to his account directly every month. If a pensioner does not draw any amount for three months, his account will be suspended until he meets the branch manager to prove that he is alive.
National Bank, being the only government-owned commercial bank, will be the only collecting and disbursing bank for the Pension Fund. All deductions from gross salaries of employees will be deposited in designated bank branches (one in every district). The bank already disburses pensions to retired government servants and also serves as the government treasury.

How Government may adjust present employees and pensioners?
While all new employees will come under the Universal Pension Plan, the present pensioners and employees in service may be adjusted as follows:
a) The Government may transfer the responsibility for all present pensioners to the National Pension Fund and lend to it free of interest an amount ten times its annual total pension liability. The Fund will invest the money in bonds that will give it 10% return. It will then continue to pay to all present pensioners. As present pensioners pass away, the Pension Fund may go on refunding the loan.
b) The Government may bring under Universal Pension Plan all present employees, who deposit an amount equal to their due deductions since joining service. As its contribution, the Government will deposit an equal amount into their pension accounts.
c) The Government may make it compulsory for all employees with less than 10 years of service to deposit back deductions and come under the plan. That will reduce the total period for the Universal Pension Plan to cover all employees.
The employers in the private sector may also take these steps.